Analysts Affirm Bullish October Outlook for Crypto Despite Recent Crash

October’s Crypto Resilience: Structural Factors Override Crash Fears

Despite last week’s historic liquidation event wiping billions from crypto markets, analysts are sticking with their bullish October outlook, pointing to structural market dynamics rather than external shocks. Honestly, the crypto market cap bounced right back to $4 trillion after that weekend bloodbath, showing underlying strength that just ignores typical bear market signals. This resilience comes from what experts call purely structural adjustments—events that make everyone stop and rethink risk pricing and market mechanics without causing prolonged downturns. Scott Melker nailed the sentiment when he said he expected October to be “deep in the red” after the biggest liquidation in crypto history, yet markets keep holding up, which “honestly feels like a small miracle.” The real difference here, according to Melker, is how this correction stacks up against past crypto black swan events. Unlike 2017’s ICO frenzy, 2021’s China mining ban, or the FTX implosion, last week’s mess had no major external triggers—it was all about internal market recalibration.

HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun backed this up, noting that while sentiment’s still shaky and prices jump at every headline, “near-term volatility is to be expected, but excessive pessimism is unwarranted.” From a medium-to-long-term view, Sun stressed that “policy easing, de-escalation of tensions, and liquidity repair should remain the dominant themes” driving market recovery. Frankly, this structural take suggests the crash was a necessary market cleanse, not some trend reversal.

• Looking at past Octobers shows clear recovery patterns every time
• Historical data proves Bitcoin has gained in October in ten of the last twelve years
• That’s why traders call it “Uptober”—it’s almost a given
• Bitcoin’s down just 0.6% since October started, but history says most gains hit in the second half

In October 2024, Bitcoin jumped 16% after October 15, while 2023 saw a 29% surge and 2020 an 18% rise in the same stretch. Pulling this all together, the market’s quick bounce and analyst agreement point to solid structural health. The liquidation forced needed deleveraging without wrecking core fundamentals, setting up perfect conditions for October gains as seasonal patterns mix with better market structure.

After the largest liquidation in crypto history, I expected October to be deep in the red

Scott Melker

Near-term volatility is to be expected, but excessive pessimism is unwarranted

Tim Sun

Technical Analysis Backs the Bullish Case

Anyway, technical analysis shows some killer chart setups that support the bullish October story, even with all the recent chaos. Multiple patterns lining up make a strong case for upward moves, with key support and resistance levels giving clear direction signals. When classic technical patterns match historical seasonal trends, you get a powerful setup for October action.

Chart evidence reveals a double bottom forming with bounces near $113,000 support and neckline resistance around $117,300. Break above that, and we’re looking at roughly $127,500 based on traditional measures. At the same time, Bitcoin’s stuck in a big symmetrical triangle on daily charts, which often leads to sharp breakouts as prices squeeze toward the apex. Targets near $137,000 line up perfectly with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension around $134,700.

• Backing this up, liquidation heatmaps show nearly $8 billion in shaky short positions piled between $118,000 and $119,000
• Clear that zone, and shorts get squeezed hard, cutting selling pressure fast
• The Relative Strength Index has climbed from neutral without hitting overbought yet
• That means bullish momentum’s building with plenty of room to run

History confirms similar technical setups in past bull markets often led to major jumps, especially during October’s strong seasons. On that note, some warn of technical risks, like breaks below key supports at $107,000 that would kill bullish patterns. Others point to bearish divergences on weekly charts or overbought conditions that could spark corrections. But honestly, when multiple indicators converge—double bottom, symmetrical triangle, Fibonacci alignments—it’s way stronger than any single signal.

So, putting it all together, the current setup screams breakout potential with clean risk parameters. Mix classic patterns, liquidation clusters, and momentum gauges, and October could deliver serious gains if resistance breaks while support holds as natural stop-losses.

The convergence of multiple technical patterns creates a compelling setup for October. When double bottoms and symmetrical triangles align, we often see powerful breakouts

Sarah Chen

The alignment of Fibonacci extensions with pattern targets provides strong confluence. This increases confidence in potential breakout scenarios for Bitcoin trading

Mark Richardson

Historical October Performance Patterns

You know, October’s track record gives solid proof for keeping the bullish momentum going, with the month consistently ranking among Bitcoin’s top performers. Checking multi-year trends shows clear seasonal patterns that back the “Uptober” hype. Understanding this history helps make sense of recent price moves in bigger cycles.

Data from CoinGlass stats show October as Bitcoin’s second-best month since 2013, averaging 20.14% returns. That’s only behind November’s 46.02% average gain, locking in a clear fourth-quarter strength pattern. This gets real interesting when you see recovery trends: drops over 5% in October happened just four times in the last decade, and most times, Bitcoin snapped back hard within a week.

Real-world examples show this toughness. The exception was 2021 with a 3% further drop, reminding us patterns guide but don’t guarantee. Current conditions mirror many past cases, with early October weakness possibly setting the stage for second-half strength. The trend of most gains coming after October 15 holds across years.

That said, some argue seasonal trends aren’t foolproof, especially with crypto markets maturing fast. Changing structures, more big players, and different macro scenes could shift old patterns. But October’s consistency through various markets—bull, bear, transitions—hints at deeper seasonal forces beyond specific conditions.

So, blending history with now, October 2025 looks set to keep the second-half strength going. Mix average returns, rebound habits after early slips, and gain timing, and it’s a strong case for bullish outcomes despite recent noise.

There are still 21 days left in Uptober

Samson Mow

Drops of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare. This has happened only 4 times in the past 10 years

Timothy Peterson

Macroeconomic Factors Backing Crypto

On that note, macro developments are setting up sweet conditions for crypto recovery, with Fed policy hopes and shifting market ties adding more bullish fuel. The link between traditional finance and crypto has tightened, creating new dynamics that affect prices beyond just tech or seasons. Current macro scenes suggest risk assets should do well, volatility aside.

Policy checks show high chances of Fed rate cuts, with CME FedWatch Tool data pricing in major easing. History says dovish Fed moves usually help risk assets like Bitcoin by cutting the cost of holding no-yield assets. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that “when the Fed cuts rates within 2% of all time highs, the S&P 500 has risen an average of +14% in 12 months,” hinting at spillover to crypto with growing correlations.

• Real macro hits include the trade tariff mess that fueled last weekend’s crash now cooling off
• A White House official confirmed planned US-China leader talks on trade
• That eases geopolitical fears that shook markets

HashKey’s Tim Sun said “trade conflict is not a zero-sum game; both parties ultimately seek larger shares of the gains, suggesting the end result will likely be milder than sentiment says.” This drop in macro uncertainty removes a big crypto headwind.

But let’s be real—some see persistent risks, like Arthur Hayes warning “macroeconomic pressures could push Bitcoin down to $100,000, citing global strains and policy shifts that kill risk appetite.” Others note Bitcoin’s tighter ties to tech stocks could放大 swings in broader downturns. Still, the overall macro picture looks supportive, with expected easing, calming tensions, and historical patterns favoring risk assets now.

So, mashing macro factors together, the environment backs continued crypto strength through October. Potential Fed cuts and fewer trade fights could overpower short-term wobbles, supporting the bullish October view.

When the Fed cuts rates within 2% of all time highs, the S&P 500 has risen an average of +14% in 12 months

The Kobeissi Letter

Macroeconomic pressures could push Bitcoin down to $100,000, citing global economic strains and policy shifts that reduce risk appetite

Arthur Hayes

Institutional vs Retail Market Dynamics

Anyway, crypto’s evolving structure makes things totally different from past cycles, with big players adding stability that changes old market rules. The balance between institutional and retail behavior hugely affects prices and volatility, creating new mechanics that support the bullish October call. Getting these shifts explains why recent chaos hasn’t wrecked bigger trends.

Institutional activity shows they’re still in despite price swings. Data says institutions boosted Bitcoin holdings by 159,107 BTC in Q2 2025, proving they’re accumulating, not panicking. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows stay positive, with big inflows even during recent stress. Glassnode analysts highlighted “US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of ~5.9k BTC on Sept. 10, the largest daily inflow since mid-July,” pushing weekly flows positive and showing renewed institutional demand that grounds the market.

• Clear structural differences pop up comparing now to past cycles
• Scott Melker stressed this isn’t 2017 or 2021, when outside forces drove moves
• Instead, last week was “purely structural—making everyone stop, reprice risk, and rethink what’s possible”
• This adjustment is worlds apart from past black swans with external triggers

Institutions vs retail shows split impacts: big guys bring stability with long-term, strategic bets on fundamentals, while retail often amps volatility with emotional trades and high leverage. Current structure benefits from both: institutions set price floors and curb extreme downsides, while retail keeps liquidity and helps price discovery in rebounds.

So, market evolution means more mature mechanics that sustain trends despite short-term noise. The structural nature of recent fixes—focused on risk repricing, not core issues—plus institutional buying suggests underlying health that favors October strength.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of ~5.9k BTC on Sept. 10, the largest daily inflow since mid-July. This pushed weekly net flows positive, reflecting renewed ETF demand

Glassnode analysts

Bitcoin’s institutional adoption continues to accelerate, creating strong fundamental support for higher prices despite short-term volatility

Mike Novogratz

Gold Correlation and Capital Rotation Patterns

You know, traditional market moves give extra bullish signs for crypto, with gold‘s run and capital shifts hinting at Bitcoin follow-through. The tie between precious metals and crypto has changed, creating new cross-market dynamics that sway prices and investor behavior. Checking these links puts crypto moves in wider financial context.

Gold analysis shows the metal hitting all-time highs last week, proving strong safe-haven demand amid global worries. Scott Melker called this big, saying “investors aren’t panicking, they’re reallocating. And if gold can rally that hard, imagine what happens when capital starts rotating back into Bitcoin.” History often shows money moving from gold to Bitcoin after metal peaks, suggesting possible extra crypto inflows.

Real cross-asset influence includes Ted Pillows’ note that “Bitcoin follows gold with an eight-week delay, and he expects Q4 to be big for BTC.” That timing puts Bitcoin gains right in October’s second half, matching seasonal history. The link has strengthened as both assets act as fiat alternatives, though they attract different crowds and uses.

But some doubt gold-Bitcoin ties will last, noting the relationship swings wildly in different markets. Others say Bitcoin’s dual role as risk-on and store of value makes messy dynamics that don’t always sync with metals. However, the current scene—full of policy uncertainty, geopolitical stress, and currency fears—could benefit both assets at once.

So, cross-asset signals mean gold’s strength indirectly backs Bitcoin’s value and hints at capital shifts. Mix gold’s rally, historical correlations, and similar macro tails, and you get more support for Bitcoin’s October run, especially later in the month when seasons usually kick in.

Bitcoin follows gold with an eight-week delay, and he expects Q4 to be big for BTC

Ted Pillows

Investors aren’t panicking, they’re reallocating. And if gold can rally that hard, imagine what happens when capital starts rotating back into Bitcoin

Scott Melker

Risk Management in Volatile Times

Anyway, solid risk management is key even with bullish views, with clear support and resistance levels giving frameworks for October’s potential swings. Mixing technical patterns, liquidation clusters, and history creates specific price zones to watch for chances and protection. Knowing these levels balances upside with smart risk control.

Technical checks pinpoint critical support at $112,000 for short-term plays, with major support around $113,000 from recent action and patterns. Daan Crypto Trades stressed this, saying “$112,000 as key short-term support” but warning “ideally don’t want to see price re-visit that” given breakdown risks. Resistance piles up between $118,000 and $119,000, where nearly $8 billion in weak shorts could squeeze if broken.

• Practical risk moves include using pattern targets for position sizing
• Stop-losses below $113,000 support from double bottom setup
• Breakouts above $117,500 might challenge all-time highs near $124,474
• Liquidation heatmaps guide acceleration spots

History shows breaking heated zones often leads to pullbacks, making them natural profit-taking areas. Risk styles vary: some cut exposure at heated spots around $122,000 to lock gains, while others hold through rallies if trends stay strong.

Charles Edwards captured this balance, noting “at the end of the day, the driving force is the institutional buying, and if that pivots down, my view will be very different,” pushing for flexible plans as things change. So, risk views say a balanced approach works best, blending technical levels and liquidation info. October’s setup favors bulls, but crypto’s wild nature needs disciplined management with clear entries and exits based on hard prices, not emotions.

$112,000 as key short-term support

Daan Crypto Trades

But at the end of the day, the driving force is the institutional buying, and if that pivots down, my view will be very different

Charles Edwards