Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Treasury Performance Amid Market Pressures
Japanese investment firm Metaplanet reported a significant 39% decline in Bitcoin valuation gains for the third quarter of 2025, falling to 10.6 billion yen ($1.4 billion) from 17.4 billion yen ($2.4 billion) in the previous quarter. This sharp drop reflects the ongoing pressure on corporate Bitcoin treasuries following October’s $19 billion crypto market crash, which saw Bitcoin fall below the average acquisition cost basis of multiple treasury firms. Anyway, Metaplanet emphasized that its Bitcoin Treasury Business continues to progress steadily in line with plan and is not dependent on short-term price fluctuations, maintaining its long-term strategy despite current market headwinds.
The company’s Bitcoin holdings have been in the red since the market crash, with the investment firm acquiring its Bitcoin at an average cost of $108,000 per coin, nearly 5% below the current BTC price of $103,000. Metaplanet holds 30,823 bitcoins and aims to acquire 210,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027 through equity financing opportunities. The firm reported a stock amortization cost of $26 million for the third quarter, which refers to the total costs associated with issuing new shares during this period and serves as a gauge of the cost of raising capital for the company.
Analyst Kashyap Sriram highlighted the underwater position in an X post, noting that the giant position is now 5% underwater. The analyst also criticized Metaplanet’s recent $100 million Bitcoin-backed loan, which it raised to buy more BTC in an effort to lower their total cost basis. The investment firm secured the $100 million loan on October 31 using its Bitcoin holdings as collateral, representing a strategic move to navigate the challenging market conditions while maintaining its accumulation targets.
Metaplanet’s stock price fell over 27% during the past month and over 6.5% during the past five days, according to Yahoo Finance data. The company’s stock performance was also pressured by reports that Japan Exchange Group (JPX) was exploring new restrictions on publicly listed cryptocurrency holding firms. However, Metaplanet’s CEO, Simon Gerovich, clarified that JPX’s concerns only apply to companies with poor approval processes that have potentially sidestepped proper governance or disclosure rules.
The Company’s Bitcoin Treasury Business continues to progress steadily in line with plan and is not dependent on short-term price fluctuations
Metaplanet
The company owns 30,823 bitcoins at an average acquisition cost of $108k/BTC. The giant position is now 5% underwater
Kashyap Sriram
October Market Crash Impact on Corporate Bitcoin Strategies
The October 2025 crypto market crash created significant pressure on corporate Bitcoin treasuries, with Bitcoin falling under the average acquisition cost basis of multiple treasury firms. This marked the first red October for Bitcoin in seven years, breaking the historical ‘Uptober’ trend of steady gains that had characterized the cryptocurrency’s performance since 2013. The $19 billion market crash on October 10 created widespread uncertainty and forced corporate holders to reassess their treasury management strategies in the face of declining valuations.
Historical data from CoinGlass reveals October has averaged returns of 20.14% since 2013, making the 2025 downturn a clear outlier in Bitcoin’s seasonal performance patterns. The rarity of such events underscores Bitcoin’s built-in volatility, where factors like geopolitical tensions and monetary policy can override past trends. Analyst Jelle stressed the importance of this deviation, pointing out the need for a strong finish to avoid the first red October close in seven years, while Crypto Damus called the volatility ‘nothing normal,’ highlighting that October is statistically the second-best month for BTC historically.
This market environment brought back memories of past bear markets, like 2018, where a red October led to a sharp 36.57% drop in November, adding to current market worries. On-chain data and market sentiment indicators showed Bitcoin struggled to hold key support levels, with selling pressure dominating the month. The breakdown of the Uptober streak hints at possible shifts in the broader bull cycle, urging investors to rethink their risk approaches and corporate treasury managers to adjust their accumulation strategies accordingly.
Some traders see this deviation as a setup for bigger November rallies, citing patterns where weak Octobers have led to average three-month returns of 11%. Timothy Peterson’s analysis suggests that rare declines often come before significant recoveries, potentially setting the stage for gains. However, other analysts argue that cycle exhaustion or unexpected external pressures could disrupt these patterns, adding more uncertainty to corporate planning and Bitcoin treasury management decisions.
Last day of the month – we need a strong green candle today or we’ll see our first red October close in 7 years
Jelle
There is nothing “normal” about this BTC Volatility October is statistically the 2nd best months of the year for BTC This is the worst October since the 2018 Bear Market and only the 3rd Red October since 2013
CRYPTO Damus
Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Landscape and Strategic Responses
The corporate Bitcoin treasury landscape has evolved significantly, with companies like Metaplanet implementing sophisticated strategies to manage their digital asset holdings. Metaplanet, also known as “Asia’s Strategy,” represents one of the prominent corporate Bitcoin holders alongside firms like MicroStrategy, which reported holding 640,808 BTC by late October 2025. These corporate treasuries now collectively hold over 1.32 million BTC, representing 6.6% of the total Bitcoin supply, with MicroStrategy alone accounting for 48% of these corporate holdings.
Metaplanet’s approach involves using equity financing opportunities to fund Bitcoin acquisitions while avoiding debt, as demonstrated by their recent $100 million Bitcoin-backed loan secured using existing holdings as collateral. This strategy differs from MicroStrategy’s consistent accumulation pattern, which saw the company purchase 31,466 BTC in July 2025, 7,714 BTC in August, 3,526 BTC in September, and only 778 BTC in October—their smallest monthly acquisition of the year. The varying approaches reflect different risk tolerances and capital allocation strategies among corporate Bitcoin holders.
Corporate Treasurer Shirish Jajodia of MicroStrategy emphasized that large Bitcoin purchases are feasible due to Bitcoin’s substantial trading volume, allowing massive acquisitions without significantly impacting prices. This insight applies broadly to corporate treasury management in crypto, where execution strategy becomes as important as acquisition timing. The cooling accumulation activity across corporate holders in late 2025 reflects tougher market conditions and capital-raising challenges, with equity issuance premiums declining from 208% to 4% according to CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun.
Other firms like Bitmine and Sharplink Gaming are attempting similar Bitcoin treasury strategies but with different risk levels and methodologies. This broader shift signals that digital assets are becoming legitimate treasury options, helping the market mature and stabilize. The evolving corporate approach is shifting from aggressive accumulation to more balanced strategies that mix growth with financial safety, indicating a maturing market where companies adjust plans based on cash flow, market conditions, and long-term objectives.
Why? Because there is simply too much institutional demand, and that demand is growing.
Keith Alan
Regulatory Environment and Its Impact on Corporate Crypto Holdings
The regulatory landscape for corporate cryptocurrency holdings is evolving rapidly, with significant implications for firms like Metaplanet managing substantial Bitcoin treasuries. Japan Exchange Group (JPX) has been exploring new restrictions on publicly listed cryptocurrency holding firms, creating additional pressure on companies with significant digital asset exposure. These regulatory developments come amid broader global efforts to establish clearer frameworks for digital assets, including the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) and the U.S. GENIUS Act.
Metaplanet’s CEO, Simon Gerovich, addressed the JPX concerns directly, stating that they only apply to companies with poor approval processes that have potentially sidestepped proper governance or disclosure rules. This clarification suggests that well-managed corporate Bitcoin strategies may face fewer regulatory hurdles, though the evolving nature of cryptocurrency regulation requires continuous monitoring and adaptation. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has made tokenization a core part of its Fintech 2030 plan, committing to accelerate financial asset tokenization and lead by issuing tokenized government bonds regularly.
Standard Chartered predicts $2 trillion in tokenized real-world assets by 2028, and regulated stablecoins hit a record $300 billion in total supply, indicating the growing institutional integration of blockchain technology. Partnerships between groups like Circle, ClearBank, and Deutsche Börse are cutting settlement risks and operational costs, boosting institutional adoption. However, differing regulatory approaches, like Japan’s limits on stablecoin issuance to licensed players and the European Systemic Risk Board’s worries about multi-issuance stablecoins weakening currencies, create a patchy landscape that affects market stability.
The growing embrace of blockchain by traditional finance and governments shows the crypto ecosystem maturing, supporting long-term market steadiness and potentially enabling broader adoption. Networks with emphasis on compliance and institutional-ready design, like those pursued by corporate holders, may benefit from this regulatory evolution. Aligning clear rules with technological advances could fuel more innovation and integration into mainstream finance, though companies must remain vigilant about changing regulatory requirements across different jurisdictions.
The HKMA will accelerate the tokenisation of real-world assets (RWAs), including financial assets, and lead by example by regularising the issuance of tokenised government bonds and exploring the concept of tokenising the Exchange Fund papers.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Institutional Bitcoin Demand and Market Fundamentals
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust despite short-term market pressures, with data showing institutions increased Bitcoin holdings by 159,107 BTC in Q2 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw substantial inflows, including $3.24 billion in one week, signaling strong institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. This institutional support often cushions market downturns, reinforcing price floors and mitigating extreme price swings, as observed in defenses of key supports by short-term holder whales during volatile periods.
Concrete examples of institutional activity include US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of approximately 5.9k BTC on September 10, representing the largest daily inflow since mid-July and pushing weekly net flows into positive territory. Historical patterns from previous cycles, particularly in 2021-2022, indicate that sustained institutional inflows often precede major market rallies, underscoring their role in market stability and efficient price discovery. The demand-supply dynamics created by institutional buying, which often outpaces daily Bitcoin mining output of 450 BTC, could drive long-term price appreciation.
Mike Novogratz emphasized that Bitcoin’s institutional adoption continues to accelerate, creating strong fundamental support for higher prices despite short-term volatility. This institutional confidence is visible in companies like Metaplanet, which bought 5,419 BTC for $632.53 million to become the fifth-largest corporate holder, and in steady dip-buying during price drops. All this institutional action builds a foundation for market resilience despite short-term swings, with corporate and ETF purchases creating structural demand that supports price stability.
Unlike institutional steadiness, retail activity often amplifies short-term volatility thanks to speculation and high leverage. Open interest in perpetual futures markets fluctuates between $46 billion and $53 billion, indicating a tight standoff between bullish and bearish positions that can lead to rapid price movements. The True Retail Longs and Shorts Account on Binance showed increased long positions during recent price dips, suggesting underlying retail demand despite broader sell-offs, creating buying opportunities at support levels but also exacerbating volatility in uncertain times.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of ~5.9k BTC on Sept. 10, the largest daily inflow since mid-July. This pushed weekly net flows positive, reflecting renewed ETF demand
Glassnode analysts
Bitcoin’s institutional adoption continues to accelerate, creating strong fundamental support for higher prices despite short-term volatility
Mike Novogratz
Technical Analysis and Price Outlook for Bitcoin Holdings
Technical analysis provides crucial insights into Bitcoin’s price movements, with critical support zones including $112,000, $104,000, and $113,000, while resistance is observed near $118,000–$119,000 and $122,000. These benchmarks help identify potential turning points, offering an objective framework for corporate treasury managers navigating current volatility. The formation of higher lows near $109,500 suggests buyer interest at lower levels, while resistance at the 20-day exponential moving average of $115,945 demonstrates persistent selling pressure that affects corporate treasury valuations.
Liquidation heatmaps reveal nearly $8 billion in vulnerable short positions clustered around $118,000–$119,000, indicating that clearing this zone could trigger significant breakouts by forcing liquidations and reducing overall selling pressure. Technical patterns such as the double bottom formation, with bounces off $113,000 support and a neckline break at $117,300, target approximately $127,500 if completed. Similarly, a symmetrical triangle pattern on daily charts aims for $137,000, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $134,700, providing potential upside targets for corporate holders.
The RSI’s climb from neutral levels signals building bullish momentum, supported by historical instances where breaches of key resistances led to significant price jumps of 35% to 44% in previous market cycles. Daan Crypto Trades emphasized $112,000 as key short-term support, noting that ideally prices shouldn’t revisit that level to maintain bullish structure. However, failures to hold critical supports like $107,000 could undermine the bullish outlook, potentially triggering bearish patterns or deeper corrections that would further pressure corporate Bitcoin treasuries.
Expert forecasts for Bitcoin’s path reflect built-in uncertainties, with bullish views including Timothy Peterson’s analysis suggesting a 50% chance Bitcoin hits $140,000 based on statistical models, while others like Charles Edwards aim for $150,000 or more, citing institutional inflows and faster adoption. Bearish takes warn of possible drops to $100,000 or lower if key support levels fail, stressing risks in volatile conditions. The weekly stochastic RSI triggering bullish signals has historically brought 35% average gains, giving technical backup for price targets that corporate holders monitor for strategic planning.
Ideally don’t want to see price re-visit that
Daan Crypto Trades
$112,000 as key short-term support
Daan Crypto Trades
Risk Management in Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Operations
Effective risk management proves crucial for corporate Bitcoin treasuries in volatile market conditions, requiring strategies that balance potential gains with protection against sudden price movements. Metaplanet’s approach of securing a $100 million Bitcoin-backed loan using existing holdings as collateral represents one risk management tactic, allowing the company to purchase more BTC to lower their total cost basis while maintaining liquidity. This strategy differs from MicroStrategy’s systematic accumulation approach, which involves buying Bitcoin regularly regardless of price fluctuations to mitigate timing risks.
Key technical levels for continuous monitoring include short-term support at $112,000 and major resistance between $118,000–$119,000, with strategic stop-loss orders positioned below critical zones like $113,000 to guard against breakdowns that could trigger significant corrections. Practical risk management approaches involve using identified technical patterns like double bottom formations and symmetrical triangles to establish projected price targets and appropriately adjust position sizes, ensuring corporate treasury activities align with risk tolerance parameters and financial objectives.
Charles Edwards emphasized that institutional buying remains the driving force for Bitcoin prices, noting that if that pivots down, market views would change significantly. This underscores the importance for corporate holders to monitor institutional flows and adjust strategies accordingly. Implementing systematic accumulation plans—buying assets regularly no matter price changes—can reduce timing risks and ease volatility’s impact on corporate financial performance, particularly valuable in crypto markets where price swings can be extreme and unpredictable.
Contrasting risk management philosophies include long-term holding strategies that rely on Bitcoin’s scarcity and adoption potential, versus more active approaches that use technical breakouts for portfolio optimization. Some analytical perspectives recommend reducing exposure at identified overheated zones to secure gains, while others advocate maintaining positions through potential rallies if underlying trends remain supportive. This range in approaches reflects the diverse objectives and risk tolerances of corporate Bitcoin holders operating in an evolving regulatory and market environment.
But at the end of the day, the driving force is the institutional buying, and if that pivots down, my view will be very different
Charles Edwards
