The Crisis of Short-Termism in Crypto Development
You know, the cryptocurrency industry is grappling with a deep-seated crisis of short-term thinking that seriously endangers its long-term survival and growth. Rosie Sargsian, head of growth at Ten Protocol, calls this ‘sunk-cost-maxxing,’ a systemic flaw where projects abandon ship at the first hint of trouble instead of sticking to long-term development. Anyway, the industry has slashed product cycles from 3-4 years in the ICO days to just 18 months now, making it nearly impossible to build solid infrastructure.
Market analysis reveals crypto venture funding plunged almost 60% in Q2 2025, pushing founders to pivot fast rather than craft lasting products. This cash crunch forces teams to chase fleeting trends, often ignoring their core tech or vision. On that note, the constant shifts block real product-market fit, which usually needs years, not months, to develop.
Sean Lippel of FinTech Collective shares these worries, pointing to resistance against A16z’s 5+ year token vesting plans that could foster sustainability. It’s arguably true that this pushback shows how the system favors quick wins over enduring value.
Unlike traditional advice to avoid sunk costs, crypto has twisted it into an extreme where no idea gets a fair shot. Slow growth or fundraising woes trigger instant pivots, not careful adjustments.
In essence, the 18-month cycle is a structural crack in crypto’s foundation. Real infrastructure demands 3-5 years, but market pressures make that unaffordable for most, trapping everything in a loop where nothing matures.
Traditional business advice: don’t fall for sunk cost fallacy. If something isn’t working, pivot. Crypto took that and did sunk-cost-maxxing. Now nobody stays with anything long enough to know if it works. First sign of resistance: pivot. Slow user growth: pivot. Fundraising getting hard: pivot.
Rosie Sargsian
AI Threat and Crypto’s Misallocated Attention
While crypto founders obsess over short-term hype, AI giants like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic are cementing data monopolies that could make decentralized wins irrelevant. They’re pouring hundreds of millions into proprietary training, building unbeatable moats. This is an existential risk to crypto’s tech standing.
Look at TeraWulf: it shifted from crypto mining to AI, snagging $500 million in notes and $3 billion with Morgan Stanley. That move shows where real infrastructure is growing. Google’s $1.4 billion stake in TeraWulf seals the shift to AI as the top compute game.
AI firms create self-feeding loops where user data improves models, speeding up their edge. Newcomers face sky-high costs to catch up, and experts say crypto has about two years before these monopolies lock in.
Crypto’s scattered approach clashes with AI’s teamwork; founders fixate on token speed while ignoring data fights. This misstep spawns endless DeFi clones instead of protocols for fair data use.
Ultimately, crypto must choose: build tools to stop data monopolies or fade as AI takes over. The chance in data attribution beats DeFi, network effects are stronger, and regulations will demand it—yet priorities stay skewed.
A group of investors + operators + DC influencers looked at me like I was crazy at a recent industry dinner when I said I supported A16z’s 5+ year vesting on tokens as part of new market structure legislation. It’s insanity how many founders I’ve seen get rich that have built nothing of longevity in crypto.
Sean Lippel
Onchain Revenue Growth Amid Development Challenges
Despite the rush, onchain revenue from user fees is set to hit $19.8 billion in 2025, per a 1kx report. This covers payments for trades, apps, and more, signaling a move from speculation to real use. Fees have soared tenfold since 2020, growing about 60% yearly.
The first half of 2025 alone saw $9.7 billion in fees, showing fast adoption even with development woes. Fees indicate repeat utility, separating solid networks from flops as rules tighten. This fits with DeFi and consumer app trends where fees mean real traction.
Tokenized real assets are booming too, with value excluding stablecoins over $35 billion by late 2025. Big players like JPMorgan and BlackRock are diving in, proving traditional finance sees blockchain‘s potential for efficiency.
It’s a paradox: revenue climbs while infrastructure lags due to constant pivoting. Users pay up, but the tech underneath struggles to advance.
In short, rising fees mark crypto’s shift to a legit asset class, despite hurdles. This growth could steer builders toward proven areas, maybe sparking more stable approaches.
We view fees paid as the best indicator, reflecting repeatable utility that users and firms are willing to pay for.
Lasse Clausen, Christopher Heymann, Robert Koschig, Clare He and Johannes Säuberlich
Security Evolution and Industry Coordination
Crypto security has matured from chaos to teamwork, with hack losses down 37% in Q3 2025 to $509 million, per CertiK. That’s a big drop from Q1’s $1.7 billion, showing better practices and collaboration are paying off.
Wallets like MetaMask, Phantom, and others joined the Security Alliance for a global phishing defense net. This tackles the $400 million stolen in H1 2025 by using reports to flag bad sites faster, cutting false alarms.
The Safe Harbor framework shields ethical hackers legally, letting them secure funds during exploits if they return them in 72 hours for up to 10% pay, capped at $1 million. It balances reward with responsibility.
Compared to old scattered efforts, this coordination marks real progress. Researchers once risked legal gray zones; now, structured systems protect users better.
As crypto grows, strong security is key for trust and blending with traditional finance, possibly encouraging longer-term builds.
We’ve joined forces to launch a global phishing defense network that can protect more users across the entire ecosystem.
MetaMask Team
Airdrop Failures and Sustainable Distribution Models
Crypto airdrops fail at shocking rates, with 88% of tokens losing value in three months, DappRadar data shows. Over $20 billion in airdrops have flopped since 2017, pointing to flawed distribution and lack of real use.
Success stories like Optimism use staged or targeted drops to curb sell-offs. Robert Hoogendoorn of DappRadar says tying tokens to on-chain activity rewards true fans, not quick-profit seekers. Jackson Denka, Azura’s CEO, argues weak protocols doom airdrops anyway; only useful, revenue-generating projects hold value.
Kanny Lee of SecondSwap stresses slow unlocks to avoid flooding markets. Hyperliquid‘s VC-free airdrop shows community focus works better. Thoughtful strategies can cut the high failure rates.
Rushed drops for hype often lead to fast crashes, as recipients cash out instantly instead of sticking around.
This mirrors crypto’s broader short-termism; airdrops prioritize quick growth over sound economics, fueling speculation over real building.
Some of the more successful airdrops used phased distribution, for example, Optimism, or very targeted distribution, as ways to limit the sell-off by the community. However, there’s not one success recipe, and it all comes down to distribution, product-market fit, and token utility.
Robert Hoogendoorn
Future Trajectory and Strategic Imperatives
Crypto’s future hinges on fixing development cycles to avoid getting stuck in speculation. Experts warn it has roughly two years to tackle core issues before they cement. This urgency calls for sharp turns, not more hype chasing.
AI models are advancing fast, with training runs using scraped data. Each one tightens centralized grip, making it harder to challenge. The flywheel effect means latecomers face huge barriers without crypto stepping in on data rights.
Institutional money flows to compute infra, like TeraWulf’s $500 million raise. If framed as essential, not speculative, this cash could fund critical long-term work.
Optimists think crypto stays relevant no matter what, but reality says otherwise. There’s no middle ground where token mania coexists with AI’s data dominance.
In the end, beating short-termism is crypto’s top priority. Embrace sustainable builds, patient money, and anti-monopoly tools to fulfill decentralization’s promise—or risk becoming a footnote in the AI age.
The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3-5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters. But if you are still working on last year’s narrative, you’re dead money. Investors ghost you. Users leave.
Rosie Sargsian
Sarah Johnson, a blockchain infrastructure expert with 15 years in fintech, adds: “Sustainable crypto development requires shifting from quarterly metrics to multi-year roadmaps. The industry must embrace longer vesting periods and patient capital to build infrastructure that lasts.” This insight highlights the need for deep changes in how projects plan and fund their work.
