Bitcoin’s Historical Rally Signals: What Long-Term Holder Trends Reveal
Bitcoin long-term investors currently hold 80% of all BTC in circulation, a scenario that has historically preceded significant price rallies. Analysis shows that when long-term holders (LTHs) — those holding coins for at least 155 days — accumulate such a substantial portion of Bitcoin‘s supply, the market often experiences bullish momentum. The last two instances saw Bitcoin’s price surge by 72% and 84%, respectively.
The Significance of 80% Long-Term Holder Supply
CrediBULL Crypto, a prominent analyst, highlights that reaching the 80% threshold in LTH supply signals reduced sell pressure and strong investor conviction. This trend suggests that most of Bitcoin’s supply is becoming increasingly illiquid, potentially setting the stage for new price highs. Historical data from February and October 2024 supports this pattern, with both periods leading to notable rallies.
Market Reactions and Future Projections
Current market dynamics, including institutional interest and call option positioning, indicate expectations of Bitcoin breaking past the $110,000 resistance level. Traders are focusing on the $130,000 mark, as shown by growing positions in September $130,000 call options on Deribit. QCP Capital’s analysis aligns with this outlook, suggesting that a breach above $110,000 could trigger renewed volatility and upward momentum.
Understanding the Liquidation Heatmap
The BTC/USDT three-month liquidation heatmap reveals significant liquidity clusters just above $110,000, with heavy ask orders extending to $130,000. Data from CoinGlass provides a clear visual of potential resistance and support levels, offering valuable insights into trader sentiment and market liquidity.
Key Takeaways
- Long-term Bitcoin holders now control 80% of the circulating supply, a historical indicator of potential price rallies.
- Past instances of similar accumulation led to price increases of 72% and 84%.
- Market indicators and trader positions suggest a bullish outlook, with a focus on the $130,000 level.
- Institutional activity and reduced sell pressure are contributing to Bitcoin’s illiquid supply, which may amplify future price movements.
