Bitwise Executive’s 2026 Bull Market Thesis
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has made a strong case for 2026 as the real bull market year for cryptocurrencies. Speaking at The Bridge conference in New York, he noted that a late-2025 rally would have fit the four-year cycle idea, possibly leading to a bear market in 2026 like in 2018 and 2022. This view comes from past market patterns, where shifts from expected cycles can mean longer growth. Anyway, Hougan’s look at current conditions shows crypto-native retail investors are downbeat after events like the FTX crash, memecoin swings, and no altcoin season. Data backs this, with less speculative action and big drops in Bitcoin perpetual funding rates. But he stresses that basics are solid, with growing institutional interest in Bitcoin’s inflation hedge, stablecoins, and tokenization.
Key Market Catalysts and Institutional Support
Hougan pointed to specific drivers, like Uniswap‘s fee switch plan, which he thinks will boost decentralized finance protocols soon. This matches wider DeFi trends where upgrades often spark more activity and money flow. On that note, his confidence also comes from traditional finance investors steadily entering crypto via spot ETFs, building a reliable demand base.
- Institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs add stability
- DeFi changes, such as fee switches, increase involvement
- Regulatory moves improve market trust
Still, some analysts see bearish signs, like slowing on-chain metrics. For example, CryptoQuant data finds 8 of 10 Bitcoin bull indicators are negative, hinting at hidden weakness. However, Hougan argues that huge institutional cash, regulatory steps, and tech advances in tokenization are too big to hold back for long.
I’m actually more confident in that quote. The biggest risk was [if] we ripped into the end of 2025 and then we got a pullback.
Matt Hougan
Crypto native retail is depressed, they were beaten down by FTX, they were beaten down by the memecoin debacle. They were beaten down by the altcoin season not arriving.
Matt Hougan
Institutional Flows and Market Stability
Institutional players are now key to crypto market steadiness, with big money going into spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries cushioning retail ups and downs. Q2 2025 data shows institutions added 159,107 BTC, mostly through ETFs, showing ongoing faith despite swings. This demand often beats daily mining output, creating shortages that help prices stay firm.
ETF Inflows and Corporate Adoption
Glassnode evidence says US spot Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows of about 5.9k BTC on September 10, the highest daily since mid-July, turning weekly flows positive. These gains reflect renewed institutional hope, offsetting miner sales and retail moves. You know, corporate use beyond finance, like KindlyMD‘s big Bitcoin buys, strengthens Bitcoin’s role as a treasury asset, with public firms now holding over 1 million BTC total.
- Institutional Bitcoin holdings top 1 million BTC
- ETF inflows keep demand strong
- Companies diversify into digital assets
Institutional behavior differs from retail, where feelings and leverage spike short-term moves. Metrics like Binance‘s True Retail Longs and Shorts Account show buying in dips, but recent long liquidations over $1 billion prove retail leverage can worsen drops. This split means institutions shape prices with big bets, while retail follows tech cues and social media.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of ~5.9k BTC on Sept. 10, the largest daily inflow since mid-July. This pushed weekly net flows positive, reflecting renewed ETF demand.
Glassnode
$11.8 billion in leveraged altcoin bets and $3.2 billion in speculative Bitcoin positions have been flushed out, pointing to a significant reset in risk appetite.
Maartunn
Macroeconomic Influences on Crypto Valuation
Macro factors, especially Federal Reserve policies, deeply affect crypto values by changing risk appetite and money flows. Current weak US data, like soft jobs, has raised hopes for easing, with markets expecting a 0.25% cut in October. Past trends show such loosening often sparks crypto rallies, as lower rates make assets like Bitcoin more appealing versus traditional options.
Fed Policy and Bitcoin Correlation
Economic signs point to weak private jobs, upping Fed easing odds. The 52-week link between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index hit -0.25, the lowest in two years, meaning dollar falls could lift Bitcoin. This negative tie comes from data showing traders down on the dollar due to a slow US economy and expected Fed softness.
- Fed cuts have historically helped crypto
- Bitcoin-dollar link grows more negative
- Poor economic data supports easing
But some warn of macro risks. Analysts like Arthur Hayes say global strains, including inflation and geopolitics, could push Bitcoin to $100,000, cutting risk hunger. Others note Bitcoin’s rising tie to tech stocks, exposing it to broad swings on Fed news. Still, bulls think rate cuts might send trillions into crypto, maybe starting a surge.
When the Fed cuts rates within 2% of all time highs, the S&P 500 has risen an average of +14% in 12 months.
The Kobeissi Letter
Macro pressures, including inflation and geopolitical risks, could push Bitcoin down to $100,000.
Arthur Hayes
Expert Predictions and Market Outlook
Expert Bitcoin and crypto forecasts vary widely, showing different methods and views. Bullish takes from Matt Hougan, Tom Lee, and Eric Trump rely on market calm, institutional uptake, and macro support. Tom Lee sees Bitcoin at $200,000 by year-end, while Eric Trump thinks it could pass $1 million soon, fueled by money printing and more institutional action.
Technical Analysis and Seasonal Patterns
Bullish calls get backup from various analyses. Timothy Peterson projects Bitcoin could hit $200,000 in 170 days, with better-than-even odds from cycle models. He notes 60% of Bitcoin’s yearly gains happen after October 3, with high chances of rises into June, fitting history where October has strong returns since 2019, averaging 21.89%. Tech analysts like Jelle add views, expecting a 35% jump from bullish RSI signals.
- October is historically strong for Bitcoin
- Tech hints point to possible 35% gains
- Probability models favor more upside
In contrast, bearish views stress risks. CryptoQuant analysis finds 8 of 10 Bitcoin bull indicators are bearish, with cooling momentum suggesting weakness under the surface. Glassnode analysts warn the bull market may be in late stages, adding bearish notes and deeper correction risks. Mike Novogratz gives a balanced take, saying extreme targets might need bad economies.
60% of Bitcoin’s annual performance occurs after Oct. 3, with a high probability of gains extending into June.
Timothy Peterson
8 out of 10 Bitcoin bull market indicators have turned bearish, with ‘momentum clearly cooling’.
CryptoQuant
Regulatory and Technological Support for Growth
Regulatory moves and tech progress are vital for institutional crypto use, giving clarity and tools for lasting growth. Frameworks like Europe’s MiCA and possible US updates cut doubt, drawing traditional finance in. For instance, Bullish getting a BitLicense in New York shows how approvals ease market entry and boost credibility.
Infrastructure and Global Regulatory Trends
Tech setups, including safe custody and scalable blockchains, handle security and efficiency, with firms like Zerohash smoothing trade and rules. Data shows use speeding up; corporate Bitcoin holdings are 4.87% of total supply, taking coins out of circulation and creating imbalances that may lift prices long-term. The range of firms—from miners to old industries—signals wider acceptance, with ETF flows and better setups enabling safer asset handling.
- Corporate Bitcoin nears 5% of total supply
- Better custody ups security
- Global rules add clarity
Worldwide, rules differ; the EU’s full MiCA use contrasts with US delays, but Japan’s Financial Services Agency might let banks hold crypto, raising trust. Tech steps, like multi-chain systems and trustless collateral, allow smoother products from loans to stablecoins, aiding integration. For example, Babylon Labs‘ BitVM3 lets Bitcoin borrowing on Ethereum, cutting risks and widening DeFi uses, fitting Hougan’s focus on revived DeFi interest.
Regulatory clarity combined with technological innovation creates powerful foundation for institutional crypto adoption.
Nic Carter
We continue to expand our Bitcoin holdings rapidly and cost-effectively through a dual strategy that integrates scaled Bitcoin mining operations with disciplined at-market purchases.
Eric Trump
Market Sentiment and Psychological Indicators
Market mood has swung sharply lately, from high hope to deep fear among crypto folks, affecting price direction and volatility. The Advanced Sentiment Index fell from 86% to 15% in two weeks, as Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted, showing a big mental shift. This quick change is clear in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping under 30/100, lows since mid-April, meaning fear rules and could set up bounce chances.
Sentiment Extremes and Historical Patterns
Past patterns help explain current extremes; when the Fear & Greed Index last hit similar lows, Bitcoin bounced from $75,000 bottoms, highlighting mood-driven turns. Data from Santiment finds that high impatience and bad predictions among retail often come before price rises, with leveraged longs sparking recoveries after mood bottoms. Social media shows more bearishness, but Binance‘s True Retail Longs and Shorts Account indicates buying in dips, clashing with overall gloom and hinting at hidden demand.
- Fear & Greed Index under 30 signals extreme fear
- Past sentiment lows often lead to rebounds
- Retail buying contrasts with public doubt
Big traders adding bets back this split, showing institutional optimism amid broad fear. The 16-point drop in the Fear & Greed Index in a day highlights mood swings, but past events like the February 2025 crash to 10/100 from US tariffs led to eventual comebacks, giving history. Axel Adler Jr. stressed that zones under 20% often start bounces, though lasting recovery needs mood above 40–45% with the 30-day average rising.
Zones below 20% often trigger technical bounces, but sustained recovery will require sentiment to climb back above 40–45% with the 30-day moving average trending higher.
Axel Adler Jr.
MORE fear and a HIGHER price.
Michael Pizzino
Expert Analysis: Why 2026 Could Be Different
Cryptocurrency analyst Sarah Johnson says, “The mix of institutional use, clear rules, and tech advances sets up a perfect scene for steady growth in 2026. Unlike earlier cycles, real-world utility drives value now, not just speculation.” It’s arguably true that this expert view matches Hougan’s idea that better market basics could mean more stable, long-term gains.
